Examination for a conversion strategy of ‘the combusted crude to valuable petroleum products’ by using ‘Desulphurization technology on long residue’

Proceedings 22nd Saudi Japan Annual Symposium, Catalysts in Petroleum Refining & Petrochemicals, KFUPM Dhahran, Saudi Arabia Nov. 25-26, 2012
Examination for a conversion strategy of ‘the combusted crude to valuable petroleum products’ by using ‘Desulphurization technology on long residue’
Masayoshi Soga
masayoshi.soga@rs.jx-group.co.jp
Energy Economics Research Dept. JX Nippon Research Institute, LTD., 6-3, Otemachi 2-chome, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-0004, Japan
ABSTRACT
It is examined for the possibility in 2020 that supplying low sulphur fuel in the world would substitute for the combusted crude which is now about 600 thousand BD for power generation etc in Middle East, by using the all refining capacity in the world. As the result it is understood that the refining capacity with a little more additional capacity for the long residue desulphurization plant in the world 2020 can supply low sulphur fuel as a substitute for the combusted crude.
Introduction
On ‘Section A’ in this report, at the first the global oil balance 2020 with both the shale gas revolution and the IMO regulation will be explained. And the cost of supplying low sulphur fuel will be analyzed. On ‘Section B’ it is explained that the refinery using cheaper natural gas more in shale gas revolution will have a good chance to produce low sulphur fuel more economically.
Crude contains higher value middle distillate and lower value residue, etc. In the Middle East, the demand for power generation and seawater desalination has increased rapidly. The crude utilized for these purposes is now larger than 600 thousand BD in the area.
It is desired that by the best wisdom the crude would be used for the more valuable products such as petrochemical feed stocks and transportation fuels. In the examination, both the global oil balance and the restriction of sulphur content on bunker fuel are assumed in 2020. The global demand for bunker fuel would be 3 million BD including 0.4 million BD in the Middle East. The sulphur content in bunker fuel is assumed to be decreased from 3.5% at now to 0.5% by the IMO regulation in 2020. It is assumed that the environment regulation in the Middle East 2020 would require 0.5% maximum for the content of fuel on land, too.
This study is done by using a LP model for the global refining and market conditions with various specifications of products which has 9 areas in the world. As the result it has been understood well that the refining capacity with some additional capacity for the long residue desulphurization plant in the world in 2020 would be able to supply not only low sulphur bunker fuel but also low sulphur fuel as a substitute for the combusted crude in the Middle East.
Free Full Text Source: http://www3.kfupm.edu.sa/catsymp/Symp22nd/01%20Soga.pdf