Analysis of the probabilistic cost variation ranges according to the effect of core quantitative risk factors for an overseas plant project: Focused on a Middle East gas plant project

Analysis of the probabilistic cost variation ranges according to the effect of core quantitative risk factors for an overseas plant project: Focused on a Middle East gas plant project

Type	Journal Article
Author	Hyun-Wook Kang
Author	Yong-Su Kim
URL	http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12205-015-0497-7
Pages	1-10
Publication	KSCE Journal of Civil Engineering
Date	2015/07/17
Abstract	Authors analyzed overseas gas plant construction projects to determine the probabilistic cost variation range with consideration of the effect of core quantitative risk factors. C-Project, which is expected to be completed by a domestic construction company in country U, was chosen as the subject of analysis. By interviewing experts through survey questions, the core quantitative risk factors for the engineering, procurement, and construction phases were derived. Based on these risk factors, the cost variation range, which is caused by the risk factor effects on project cost, was analyzed. Monte Carlo simulation was applied to this quantitative cost variation result, and the probabilistic cost variation range was assessed.